How will the continued high oil price in 2008 affe

2022-09-23
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How will the continuous high oil price in 2008 affect China's economy?

after the price of international crude oil futures broke 100 at the beginning of the year, it once again hit a record high of $120.36 per barrel on the 5th, attracting widespread attention from all walks of life

oil is the blood of modern industry. As a major oil importer with 50% dependence on foreign oil, what impact will high oil prices have on China's economic operation? Relevant experts were interviewed on this issue

the international oil price remained at a high level.

the crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange on July 31 last year, but 'occupy' means' don't work hard 'hit a record high closing price of $78.21 per barrel. After that, it broke through $80 per barrel in September and $90 per barrel in October, and jumped again on the first trading day of this year, breaking the intraday $100 per barrel mark

the international oil price broke through $120 per barrel for the first time, mainly due to the tense security situation in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria, the main oil producing countries of the organization of petroleum exporting countries, which led investors to worry about the impact of crude oil supply and the decline of the US dollar against the euro on the same day

Shan Weiguo, director of the market Institute of the economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, said that the rising oil demand in emerging market economies and the limited production increase in resource producing countries, the accelerated depreciation of the US dollar and the massive inflow of speculative funds into the commodity market due to the subprime mortgage crisis are the main reasons for the accelerated rise in international oil prices since the second half of last year

since September last year, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates seven times in a row, with a cumulative rate cut of 325 basis points, and the US dollar has shown a sharp downward trend. Wang Jian, Secretary General of the China macroeconomic society of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out that with the deepening of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, it is expected that the weak dollar policy will not change in the short term, and bulk commodities will still be the main target of fund speculation. 2. The special broach for the impact sample gap will continue to operate at a high level, and it is difficult to fall sharply this year

China's economy is under the pressure of high oil prices

it is an indisputable fact that China's economy is increasingly under the pressure of high international oil prices. However, the prevailing view is that the rise in oil prices will not affect the overall stable growth of China's economy

Wang Jian pointed out that as a developing country, China's industrial structure is relatively lagging behind, relying more on energy intensive industries to promote economic growth, the urbanization process is accelerating, and oil consumption is in the rising range, which means that the rising international oil prices will put China under greater pressure

the most direct impact of high oil prices on China's economy is the increase in import payments. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China's net import of crude oil in the first quarter of this year was 44.95 million tons, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year; The net import of refined oil reached 5.47 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 31.8%. The trade deficit caused by the failure of imported crude oil and refined oil to be added and restarted has accumulated nearly US $33.1 billion

Wang Jian pointed out that since oil is a basic energy product, the continuous rise of international oil prices will push China's producer price (PPI) higher and increase inflationary pressure. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the ex factory price of crude oil rose 37.9% year-on-year in March. Among the main processed petroleum products, the ex factory prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene increased by 9.9%, 10.9% and 12.1% respectively. CIS polybutadiene rubber prices rose 20.7%. From January to March, China's PPI rose 6.9% year-on-year, and the purchase prices of raw materials, fuels and power rose 9.8%

the impact of rising oil prices has begun to affect the production and life of ordinary people. In order to reduce inflationary pressure, the retail price of refined oil in China has not been adjusted since November last year. However, with the further upside down of domestic crude oil prices and refined oil prices, the losses of oil refining enterprises have intensified, causing hope that it can help you. Some refineries, especially local refineries, have shut down or semi shut down, which has seriously affected the supply of refined oil market in China. Since the end of last year, some regions in China have experienced tight oil supply, shutdown and restriction of supply

in the first quarter of this year, China's petrochemical industry saw its first profit decline since 2001. The first quarter net profit of CNPC and Sinopec decreased by 28.6% and 65.78% year-on-year respectively due to refining losses and other reasons

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