The hottest opportunity and risk coexist. What aut

2022-08-23
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Opportunities and risks coexist. What autumn will the steel market usher in?

recently, peripheral systemic risks have become a hot topic in the market, and there seems to be a glimmer of vitality in the Sino US trade war. According to Xinhua news agency, Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen was invited to lead a delegation to the United States from August 21 to 22 to consult with U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury malpaz on Sino US economic and trade issues. It has been more than two months since the US Secretary of Commerce Ross led a delegation to China to discuss the economic and trade issues between the two countries. It is expected that a new round of trade negotiations and agreements will be implemented before the US mid-term elections. Due to the voice of the US and the pressure of the election, the US government may change its trade policy, as well as its ideas and practices on trade with China. In the final analysis, the judgment of whether China and the United States are complementary or competitive in terms of economy, trade and industrial structure is the main factor determining the development direction of Sino US trade relations in the medium and long term

another hot event is Turkey's financial crisis. After the United States imposed strengthened sanctions on Turkey, the lira and Turkey's main working stock market fell significantly in 2017. With S & P and Moody's successively announcing that Turkey's long-term sovereign credit rating was lowered to "junk", Turkey's currency crisis was imminent, the lira's repeated devaluation and the continuous reduction of foreign exchange reserves made it difficult to alleviate the Turkish financial crisis, This will cause substantial fluctuations in the currency and capital markets of emerging economies. First, the exchange rate of emerging economies will have a downward trend, followed by the depreciation and selling of treasury bonds, which may eventually affect the stock market and have a negative impact on the overall market sentiment

the wind of environmental protection is spreading, and the wind force around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is not decreasing

foreign events are frequent, the momentum of domestic environmental protection is in full swing, and the wind of production restriction has been blowing to many places across the country. With the landing of the environmental protection supervision team, steel mills and coking plants have started the active production restriction mode, with the production restriction range of 50%. On August 21, the work of strengthening supervision in key areas of the annual blue sky defense war continued. Among them, 90 supervision teams conducted supervision in 91 counties (cities, districts) of the Fen Wei plain and found 112 gas-related environmental problems. Then, many places issued new policies on pollution

as for the further promotion of environmental protection in the Fen Wei plain, the environmental protection work in the surrounding areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has not been lax. On the 22nd, Anyang region issued a notice to adjust the air pollution control measures, which clearly stipulates the relevant iron and steel enterprises. For Anyang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., one sintering machine is required to stop production for 24 hours a day, the blast furnace is required to reduce the production load, and three 35 ton converters are required to stop production for 8 hours from 23 a day to 7 a.m. the next day. For 8 iron and steel enterprises, including Anyang Xinpu iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Anyang Yongxing iron and Steel Company of Shagang Group, the decision was made to shut down all sintering machines for 8 hours from 23:00 a day to 7:00 a.m. the next day, reduce the production load of blast furnaces, and shut down all converters for 7 hours from 23:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. the next day. At the same time, the relevant control measures of some industrial enterprises, construction sites and motor vehicles are also required to be adjusted from 12:00 on August 22. In terms of the target control of iron and steel production restriction in Hebei Province, the "work plan for reducing production capacity of iron and steel industry in Hebei Province (year)" was also issued recently, aiming to achieve "two reductions, two reductions and four improvements" in the iron and steel industry after three years of efforts. The two reductions include the reduction of steel production capacity. By the end of 2020, the province's steel production capacity will be controlled within 200 million tons, of which 12million tons of steel production capacity will be reduced and withdrawn in 2018; Specifications and models of electronic change tester in iron and steel enterprises: 100nm, 206 Pay attention to changing the oil of the main engine using the reducer every 2500 hours (if the frequency of use is not very high, 0nm, 500nm, 1000nm, 2000Nm, 3000Nm, 5000NM, 20nm, 50nm, 5nm and other industries will be reduced. By 2020, the number of iron and steel smelters will be reduced to about 70, and the number of enterprises will be reduced to about 60, including the "zombie enterprise" of iron and steel in 2018 All production capacity is cleared. It can be found that Hebei Province, as an important environmental protection Town, has tougher environmental protection measures and stricter standards, and the normalization trend of environmental protection remains unchanged

the factory, warehouse and social warehouse are differentiated, and the downward trend of inventory has not changed.

how does the inventory performance respond to the environmental protection inspection? According to the inventory data of this week, the social inventory was 2.7583 million tons, and the performance changed from decline to increase, from a decline of 21700 tons in the previous week to an increase of 33400 tons; The factory warehouse is 1.1462 million tons, still continuing the downward trend of last week, from a decrease of 53400 tons to a decrease of 41800 tons, and the decline has converged. From the perspective of total inventory, thanks to the fact that the decline of the factory warehouse is greater than the increase of the social library, it finally shows that the decline of the factory warehouse is 3.945 million tons, a decrease of 8400 tons. The decline of the factory warehouse is still due to the recent tightening of environmental protection. Of course, the social library is in the transitional stage of seasonal bottom, close to the end, After that, we still need to continue to pay attention to environmental protection and resource flow to verify whether the inventory at the end of destocking has shifted

according to the inventory data released today, the social warehouse and factory warehouse are also differentiated. The social inventory was 10.0294 million tons, and the performance changed from increase to decrease, from an increase of 74800 tons last week to a decrease of 43700 tons, which was mainly due to the decrease of threads, while cold rolling, hot rolling and medium plate all decreased slightly; The inventory of the steel plant was 411200 tons, and the performance changed from decline to increase, from 85200 tons decreased last week to 11800 tons increased, mainly due to the change of wire rod from decline to increase. As the decline of social inventory was greater than that of factory inventory, the total inventory showed 14.1406 million tons, down 31900 tons from last week, and the decline was expanded

on the 23rd, the steel market performed poorly. Prices in most places fell, with an overall decline of yuan. The transaction performance was poor, especially in the southwest. Chengdu fell 70 yuan. Transactions in North China, East China and South China were general, while transactions in Urumqi were poor, and the screw speed started slowly. Market fear of heights increased. It is expected that the steel price may continue to adjust in the short term

this time starts with the external environment, and briefly analyzes the changes and impacts of the internal and external environment in which the steel market is located. First of all, China's invitation to the United States to participate in a new round of trade negotiations may be a circuitous policy adopted by the U.S. government for the future election, which will have a positive impact on the trend of the future trade war. Compared with the negotiation push-pull policy between China and the United States, Turkey's sanctions are too intense. The intensification of the currency crisis has made the whole financial environment worried, especially the chain reaction to the currencies of emerging market countries. Compared with major international events, China seems to have focused on the major event of environmental protection. The environmental protection inspection in Fen Wei plain is in full swing. Relevant enterprises take the initiative to limit production, and the supply side of the steel market continues to shrink. In addition, the heating season is coming, and there are more stringent requirements for production restriction in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. Due to the impact of production restriction, the inventory of building materials has declined, and it is currently at the end of destocking, How to change inventory in the next step remains to be verified. The turnaround of the trade war, the intensification of production restrictions, and the pressure on the supply side. Combined with the performance of the steel market on the 23rd, the transaction was weak, the fear of heights in the market increased, and the demand was weak. The current inventory was at a low level, and the steel price may continue to adjust in the short term. At the same time, we should also continue to pay attention to the expected and fundamental changes brought about by the development of the internal and external environment in the future

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